Four Critical Questions Post the Democratic National Convention

With both party conventions in the history books, the campaigns are in full gear. The Democrats had the advantage going second, and used it to go on offense. Facing hurdles with scandal and dealing with dissenters in the hall throughout, they executed a great convention. In an anti-establishment year though, the convention came across as boilerplate establishment with large amounts of poll-tested messaging and a lot regular faces. They may have missed an opportunity to spotlight more up and coming stars in the party in primetime as the Republicans had an advantage with the Trump children speaking each night.

As the campaign moves forward, here are four pressing questions:

Did She Deliver on Her Acceptance Speech?

Hillary Clinton gave a good, but not great speech. It was a solid “B”. It was hard to follow the powerful and dynamic speeches delivered by Joe Biden, Michelle Obama, Bernie Sanders, and Barack Obama, but her speech was not in that tier with the grandeur of being the first female presidential nominee aside.

Hillary’s speech left people in their same camps…you either love her or hate her. She had some memorable lines, checked off the items she needed to speak to, but it sounded like more of the same. I think she met expectations, but the bar wasn’t set too high for her due to her average speaking skills.

A concern for her moving forward is did she pass the Commander in Chief test with this speech? In the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, the most important problem facing the US today by far was terrorism. There was a fly-by mention of ISIS tonight but she missed the opportunity to lay out a case of how she will deal with the situation and terrorism in general. She spent a lot of time on why Donald Trump isn’t qualified, but didn’t make the case for herself. Donald Trump is running as the “law and order” candidate and she didn’t effectively combat that tonight.

It was a great moment to see the first female presidential nominee take the stage tonight, but it ranked among the second tier of speeches delivered throughout the week.

Will Hillary Clinton Get A Bump in the Polls Post the Convention?

Yes. When a convention is executed well, the candidate will get a bump. From the coordination of signs in the arena, excellent videos, dynamic speeches, and overcoming a lot of the hurdles from the email scandal and protestors, they will be rewarded.

I believe the bump will be limited due to two reasons; First, there was too much on the docket at the convention and it took focus away from Hillary Clinton:

1.) They had to spend time recovering from the leaked email scandal that forced the DNC Chairman to resign.

2.) They had to give Bernie Sanders the stage and deal with his supporters protest chants throughout the convention. Bernie Sanders took up a good two days including the roll call.

3.) It was a nostalgic goodbye for Joe Biden, and Michelle and Barack Obama and it didn’t help that their speeches were the most memorable speeches.

4.) There was an intense amount of Trump bashing which was expected, but it was probably more than the time given to Hillary Clinton’s accomplishments although we were overloaded with adjectives.

Second, with only 23% of the American people thinking that the country is moving in the right direction, optimism sells, but reality sets in. I’m not sure how much of a realistic picture the convention painted that matched where a majority of the country is at. Hillary Clinton will gain back some lost ground, the race will remain very close, but he Democrats could have gained a few extra points if the strategized more effectively.

Is the Party United?

If the goal of the convention was to unite the Obama coalition, they accomplished that goal. Rumors have always swirled that the Clintons and Obamas don’t like each other. Whether its true or not, they worked together to execute the DNC and overcame what could have been a divisive disaster.

The question though is what happens with Bernie Sanders intensely loyal followers. While Bernie Sanders played nice, his followers seemed reluctant to get on board. I also believe the underwhelming performance by Tim Kaine fed their desire to have a more powerful progressive on the ticket. I don’t believe Trump will gain Sanders supporters, but Gary Johnson (Libertarian) and Jill Stein (Green) could attempt to sway them and that would hurt the Clinton campaign. They also could stay home and not volunteer, donate, or vote. It will be important for the Clinton campaign to continue outreach with them, but they won’t tolerate lip service.

Can the Clinton Campaign Win Back Independents?

Mitt Romney won the Independent vote by 5% in 2012, but still lost the election. Post the RNC, Donald Trump is up 11% with Independents in an average of two national post-convention polls. There is still over three months left, but Hillary Clinton will want to get that number back to 5% to keep the full Obama coalition intact.

In the same post-convention polls of Independents, her favorable rating is at 25%, 20% find her honest and trustworthy, and only 12% believe the country is moving in the right direction. She has a lot of work to do.

The Democrats fought back this week against the scathing criticism laid out by the Republicans last week. We’ll see what the polls say, but they did enough to eat into Donald Trump’s bump making the race even going forward. We won’t know where the election is truly at until the polling in September, as the conventions were early this year, but this election is a close one at this time.

Picture by GrAL/Shutterstock.com

Polls mentioned in this post were CNN/ORC, CBS, and Reuters/Ipsos

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